Crown Macau Getting Busier???
Telltale Signs of a Casino on the Rise…
Our most popular blog posts have irrefutably been those on Melco’s Crown Macau (MPEL). The interest came from not only the general public, but also a few financial forums… Yahoo and MSN come to mind. Anyway, given your keen interest in this topic, I feel compelled to keep you abreast of happenings and give you, when I can, the bird’s-eye-view from a Macau vantage point. Here it is…
As you may have read elsewhere, Crown Macau is located on Taipa Island. Macau is tiny, but some say the short trip across the Pearl is a billion dollar gap. Well, perhaps it’s not that large, both figuratively and literally… Allow me to 开门见山 for you putonghua-ists…
The Crown Macau has a bus that shuttles punters from central Macau (right in front of the Hotel Sintra and Fortuna Japanese Restaurant, which is a hop, skip, and a jump from Grand Lisboa) to Crown Macau. Well, I’ve walked past this bus everyday for the last month+. And… the bus has been empty. The poor sweetheart waiting to greet customers seemed so lonesome. I wanted to jump in the bus, head across the strait, and throw a few tokens into the heart of the beast, just to give her some sense of purpose. Well dear friends, times have changed. The past week, the shuttle bus has not only had people, but also a queue! I’ll say it again for the flabbergasted… A Queue! And today, on my way to the office, the bus was chockablock jammed with punters, eager as beavers. I’ll make a trip out that way in the coming week and give y’all the 411 on whether there’s a noticeable difference on the floor.
June 22nd, 2007 at 1:15 am
good for MPEL!!! keep the news comming people that own it are geting worried, it went from ~$22 at IP , now it is in the 11’s!!! I think just mainly because short sellers, hopefully they’ll be a short squeeze!!!
June 22nd, 2007 at 1:16 am
*IPO
June 22nd, 2007 at 2:59 am
Thanks for the information. It appears that the word is getting out about the place. I hope it will succeed.
June 22nd, 2007 at 3:04 am
I think when everything opens at the end of July, this place will be extremely full.
June 22nd, 2007 at 7:12 am
is mpel to sell now or buy some more at this price the company some problem or something in macau. all vip table is open now
June 22nd, 2007 at 9:19 am
May be the locals figured out free Crown buses complement rather nicely whatever public transportation you people have over there in Macau.
This is real nice but your fans stateside need more. Much more!
Do us a favor please and take a look at their gaming floors and report the situation there. Talk to their staff if possible. What’s their sense of how things are going? Crowds thin, thinning, improving perhaps? If present, spending comparably to other places, decently at least? Still nobody on the third floor?
Also what’s their place in the local casino pecking order and in public perception. A lame duck, an also-ran sitting of the periphery of things, literally and figuratively, more or less equal to others, better than average or up-and-coming perhaps. Has the bad impression/karma from their public opening dissipated or is it still very much on people’s minds.
And finally, what’s the general sense of casino/hotel scene in Macao, things are moving along nicely, they are building too much, too fast, or what?
Anything at all will be very much appreciated.
June 22nd, 2007 at 11:15 pm
The big boys are building large positions at these levels. Do you really think Credit Suise, Citigroup, and UBS bring a stock public @ 19 when its really worth $11.50? Mpel is an easy triple from these levels by next year. Ofcourse, they won’t put buy recomedations till it creeps back up to $19 and the big boys are up 80% in their positions. You have to ask yourselves…Is it really fair to knock this stock down to these levels on the current news? So what that some tables weren’t ready. They will be ready one day, right? So what that the Chinese government wants to put traveling restrictions of one visit per month. How many people go to Vegas more than once per month? Was it a lie that Macau surpassed Las Vegas in revenues? Was it a lie that China is growing its economy at 10% a year? Was it a lie that China has a population of 1.9 Billion?
Melco will make people wealthy. But which people? The strong and fearless are buying now. The weak are selling for fears that Macau will be closing its borders and the casinos are going out of business. Sure, that makes a lot of sense. The City of Dreams will fail too right?
This company has a chain of slot machines, 1 casino operating, and 5 more getting built in a haven of degenerate gamblers. The rich will get richer with melco. Watch and see.
June 23rd, 2007 at 2:15 pm
its the location that i think will be a major challenge to thier crown macau operation. city of dreams is blowing out in a big way. lvs is #1 and i wouldnt be suprised if we see an over supply situation from 2010. “when ” they open casino’s in beijing and shanghai things will change for mpel unless they have a piece of the action.
mgm will be an interesting threat as well.
im going back in september and look forward to checking it out.
June 24th, 2007 at 2:28 am
Well I recently picked up shares of MPEL at 11.51 & 11.59 it’s too cheap. Sure there’s some execution problems right now but hey ALL companies suffer from those. Ex: Microsoft and Vista; Apple with iphones; Rim with Blackberries etc… Just remember that the Crown will eventually be opened July (hopefully) BUT it will open. Hey it’s already built so it’s not like it’s preconstruction. I just can’t help but be reminded how similar MPEL is trading like WYNN a few years ago when it went through their IPO’s. Everyone was worried and it didn’t take off for a while. Remember: there’s way too many big investors / Las Vegas Casino chains heavily invested in MPEL they’re not going to want their investment to go bust which means pressure for executives to get it done! There’s just too many catalysts right now to sell… All I am saying if you bought much higher (that’s totally unfortuante) BUT don’t sell near it’s lows you could have sold it much higher prior. AND LASTLY the land that they’ve acquired is worth a lot of cash… just my two cents. Wait for the shorters to get squeezed and trust me they will!!!
June 24th, 2007 at 4:35 am
Your blog entry reminded me of the article about the projected opening of the Venetian in Cotai printed in the Wall Street Journal my brother left in my lviing room last week. Apparently there are some concerns about whether the 550 buses planning to drive guests to their doors daily will be filled. I think it’s still exciting nonetheless — gondoliers and a Cirque de Soleil show — but I’m a North American and the article concludes that is the exact fear about the scope of the ambitious developments. Macau is still a Chinese city and “American-led efforts to transplant the essence of Vegas may not pan out.” I don’t know when it will be, but I hope to be there for the grand opening in August!
June 25th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
So what about that trip to the casino one of these days? The one you promised. Any chance it will happen? I realize a few years back any attempt to report on how any Macau casino was doing would get you a visit from local thugs and a subsequent trip to the morgue or hospital if you were lucky, but those times are history now. Are they really?
June 25th, 2007 at 3:25 pm
burro, will definitely make a casino trip. haven’t forgotten. check the post on the blog in the coming days…
October 18th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
very interesting article. on most issues I agree with the author:)
October 19th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
i agreed with author. thanksqz